NIGERIA MAY LOSE SOME SAHEL COUNTRIES, NOTABLY NIGER, MALI AND BURKINA FASO

How Should Nigeria Handle This Issue?

Nigeria may lose influence in some Sahel countries, notably Niger, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso if we do not take urgent diplomatic action to revive the relationships. We need to have a relationship of partners and not a relationship of big brother and younger brother when it comes to West African countries.

The strained diplomatic relations were caused by the overthrow of the presidents of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso by the military juntas of those countries. The elite’s soldiers toppled Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. On 26 May 2021, Colonel Assimi Goïta took power in Mali while on 30 September 2022, Colonel Ibrahim Traoré took power in Burkina Faso.

Political upheaval led to the overthrow of the civilian regimes. The takeovers by the military juntas worsened the countries’ relationships with France. The relationship between France and Africa is complex. France has been losing economic and strategic influence in Africa, which has led to a shift in alliances. The majority of French-speaking African countries resent France. Many French-speaking African countries opposed exploitation by France, which brought about resentment.

WHY FRENCH-SPEAKING WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES RESENT FRANCE

• France holds 50% of the foreign reserves of 12 African countries
• These compulsory deposits are regarded as colonial taxes
• This amounts to approximately USD 500 billion annually
• 50% of their foreign exchange is kept in the Bank of France to ensure that the CFA franc is convertible into euro, which generates income for France
• It enhances France’s geopolitical influence
• This is an unnecessary colonial relic

France has faced many challenges with its military presence in Africa. It is losing to Russia. Criticism of the use of the CFA franc by French-speaking West African countries enabled France to exert economic control over them. The pre-colonial history of France is perceived as arrogant and exploitative.

“We will not accept coup after coup in West Africa again.” This was part of the acceptance speech as chairman of ECOWAS by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Many of us find it difficult to understand why ECOWAS and the President of Nigeria were pushing for confrontation, with war rhetoric flowing back and forth. The French were also pushing for a war narrative, with President Emmanuel Macron promising aid for us to take on Niger. This was an attempt to fulfil France’s wishes. It was unimaginable after witnessing the massive destruction and population displacement wars have caused all over the world.

Through President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria was quick to box itself into a seven-day ultimatum for the military junta to step down. The military junta treated this as a bluff, and it was counterproductive.

I believe this statement was reckless. Our men in power cannot make such reckless statements on the world political stage. The French government wanted Nigeria to intervene in Niger through ECOMOG military personnel. The outcry from many well-meaning Nigerians, home and abroad eventually prevented the attack as they were beating the drums of war. We made them know that the beginning of a war can be known but nobody knows when and how it will end. Wars always bring destruction to both humans and property in their vicinity.

If Nigeria had intervened militarily, it could have been a disaster for us. We were dealing with enormous economic problems, including quadrupled inflation, lack of basic amenities, and most especially electricity shortages and bad roads.

The masses in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso are behind the coup plotters as they complained of endemic corruption in the system. The people decided they had had enough exploitation by foreign powers, especially France. In Niger, over 80% of the population backs the military junta against the French imperialists. Other French-speaking countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, and Guinea fully support Niger. They were ready to provide military support to Niger to counter the ECOMOG and FRENCH military forces. They see France as an imperialist state.

We believe diplomacy should be given a chance in resolving regional conflicts. Once a misunderstanding ensued between two West African heads of state. “One boasted of being an elephant that would march and crush the other, while the other told him he was a bee. If a bee enters an elephant’s ear, it will drive it to run mad”.

We believe we should not be used or seen to be doing dirty work for the superpowers. We cannot be used by a foreign power to force our African brothers into fighting their dirty wars. We question our African solidarity. We need to be watchful of the type of statements being made by our men in power. We need our men in power to have a vast knowledge of international relations, diplomacy, and politics. I believe lessons should be learnt from what has happened.

The following sanctions were imposed on Niger:

• The country became a no-fly zone
• Borders with Niger were closed
• The country was economically and financially isolated. All service transactions and electricity to Niger were frozen
• Niger’s assets in ECOWAS were frozen
• Niger was suspended from financial assistance and transactions with all financial institutions, including EBID and BOAD
• Niger’s government officials and their families were placed under travel bans
• All commercial and financial institutions linking ECOWAS member states and Niger were suspended

Likewise, Mali was suspended following their coup d’état with the same sanctions imposed. Burkina Faso was also suspended after their coup. The imposition of sanctions has been criticised by well-meaning Nigerians because of the way it handled the problems caused by the coups.

• By imposing sanctions on Niger, our economic interests were put in jeopardy
• A gas pipeline was constructed from Nigeria through Niger to Morocco to supply crude to Europe to earn foreign exchange for our country
• A rail line was constructed from Nigeria to Niger to encourage the flow of goods and services from the port of Lagos to Niger
• Niger suspended all flights having Niger as their direct link to Europe. Journeys to Europe now have to go through another country, making them far longer and more costly
• Nigeria has five states that border Niger. Many people from Niger have family ties with people living in some Nigerian states, so the border closure prevented family members from visiting each other
• The border closure disrupted the flow of goods and services. Business activities were disrupted, making people near the border poorer
• I was surprised to hear that some Yorubas had been interviewed in Niger, whose officials pleaded for non-interference by the Nigerian government. I did not know that large numbers of Yorubas lived in Niger

LIFTING OF SANCTIONS BY ECOWAS ON NIGER, MALI, BURKINA FASO AND GUINEA

On Saturday, 24 February 2024, ECOWAS decided to lift the sanctions imposed on the military rulers of Niger, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso for overthrowing democracy and the constitutional governments of their countries. The pre-condition was that the lifting of sanctions must lead to democratic rule.

The sanctions and the threat of military intervention to reverse the coups triggered the withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS. These countries quit the 15-member state bloc and grouped themselves as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). ECOWAS had asked the withdrawing members to reconsider their decision to withdraw from ECOWAS.

KING MOHAMED VI, KING OF MOROCCO, ON THE ATLANTIC INITIATIVE

The King of Morocco has been pivotal in the formation of the Atlantic Initiative on the forty-eighth anniversary of the Green March. He believes that the initiative will increase stability, security, and development in the Sahel. The initiative will also help to develop the roads, ports, and rail at the disposal of the Sahel countries. In his speech, the monarch said that Morocco is willing to put its road, port, and rail infrastructure at the disposal of the Sahel countries. This will help bring the economies of the Sahel countries close and re-engineer these countries’ geopolitical space.

They will need to develop a competitive national commercial maritime economy that will contribute to prosperity in the region. He also believes that as the Mediterranean links Morocco to Europe, so also the Atlantic coast is the gateway to the Americas and Africa.

Morocco has taken a bold step in fostering economic integration with the landlocked Sahel countries of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad.

• Launching the Atlantic Initiative will facilitate the Sahel countries’ access to the Atlantic coast
• This initiative will support and embrace peace in solving conflicts. It will also upgrade the Sahel countries’ infrastructures and connections to existing transport and communication networks.
• This will foster economic, political, and social stability in the region, including the promotion of intra-African integration

The military heads of states of the Sahel countries appreciate this brotherly and solidarity-based initiative. The Foreign Minister of Burkina Faso is gutted as he emphasised that the initiative calls for recognition of the rights and values of landlocked countries in the global economy. Morocco is a stable country with a strategic location and economic dynamism. This makes it an attractive partner for investors as it plays a vital role in Africa’s economic landscape. It has the continent’s third-largest economy after Egypt and Algeria and sits at the crossroads of Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

Factors that contributed to Morocco’s prominence

• The country has introduced economic reforms that make it the continent’s fifth-largest recipient of foreign investments. Its stable economy attracts foreign investors
• Its regional development attracted over USD 1 billion in 2008
• Moroccan companies are involved in about 9% of the total business conducted on the African continent
• Morocco is integrated into the world economy through the establishment of free trade agreements with the USA, the EU, and other countries
• It has skilful economic diplomacy as it participates in intercontinental economic forums, the WTO, and the Group of 77
• It has a diverse cultural fit and competitive advantage as it embraces Middle Eastern, European, and sub-Saharan cultural influences

We believe that Nigeria did not deal well diplomatically while trying to resolve this issue. By giving the seven-day ultimatum, we tried to use bully tactics, which have no place in modern diplomacy. How would our fellow Africans have looked at us if we had attacked Niger? It could have been a disaster. Some believed that we as Africans should not allow the Europeans to divide us and cause enmity among members of the Black race. We were lucky not to succumb to the French attempts to use Nigeria to settle scores with their former colonies. Can you imagine if we had succumbed to the French? What would then have happened if Nigerian territories were bombed? Our citizens might have been murdered on a large scale. What about the economic impact on our fragile economy? Things could have been far worse for us.

We should not allow Morocco to have the full gain of our diplomatic woes and mistakes. We must go back to the drawing board to seek the best solution to this regional issue. We need to tread softly and allow our diplomats to rectify our mistakes. We should do whatever it takes to bring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger back to our side as a neighbouring African country.